Seongnam FC 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 07:00 UTC.
Form
Seongnam FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Seongnam FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Tancheon Sports Complex this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 1.40 PPG clear of Seongnam FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Seongnam FC lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Seongnam FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 44% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 41% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.93 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.855 / defence 1.021 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 0.950 / away 1.179. Data: 32 Seongnam FC games / 32 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 27% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Seongnam FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 27% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Seongnam FC 0.93 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.855 / def 1.021 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.073 / def 1.139 | league avg home 0.950 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Seongnam FC 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 27% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Seongnam FC 0W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.07x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
27%
3.75
28%
3.53
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.29
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.62
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.29 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Seongnam FC's recent record stands at 8W 10D 14L from 32 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 4L across 32 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ulsan Hyundai FC by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Seongnam FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Seongnam FC have managed 5W 4D 6L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record stands at 7W 5D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 8W 10D 14L in their last 32 games (1.06 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 18W 10D 4L in their last 32 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.27 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Seongnam FC won 3-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Seongnam FC
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 40%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Seongnam FC) and 67% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 67% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Seongnam FC have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Seongnam FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.93 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Seongnam FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.14, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 27% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 45%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Seongnam FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 41%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Seongnam FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.