Seongnam FC 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Tancheon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 April 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.11 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.967 / defence 0.947 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.804 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 1.027. Data: 6 Seongnam FC games / 6 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 39% | Draw 39% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.56 | Draw 2.56 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.55. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 22% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 39% | Draw 39% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 40% | xG Seongnam FC 1.11 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.967 / def 0.947 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.804 / def 1.197 | league avg home 0.961 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 39% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 22% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.80x) against Seongnam FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
39%
2.55
39%
2.56
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.55
39%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.78 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Seongnam FC won 3-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Seongnam FC
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Seongnam FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Seongnam FC 0-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 7, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.11 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Seongnam FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 39% | Draw 39% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 22%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Ulsan Hyundai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.