Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Pohang Steelers travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Seongnam FC have posted 3W 2D 5L at Tancheon Sports Complex — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Pohang Steelers's 1.70 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Seongnam FC's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Seongnam FC, 3 for Pohang Steelers and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2022, ended 1–4 with Pohang Steelers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Seongnam FC trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pohang Steelers trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 46% versus Pohang Steelers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 47% | Pohang Steelers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.30 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.968 / defence 1.391 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.016 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.279. Data: 65 Seongnam FC games / 65 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 28% | Draw 23% | Pohang Steelers 49%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | Pohang Steelers 2.04. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Seongnam FC 70% | Pohang Steelers 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 28% | Draw 23% | Pohang Steelers 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Seongnam FC 1.30 / Pohang Steelers 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.968 / def 1.391 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.016 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Pohang Steelers xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 07:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Seongnam FC 1 - 1 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 28% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (6 meetings): Seongnam FC 3W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 3W.
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
28%
3.62
23%
4.35
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
3.11
1.81
Pohang Steelers xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
5%
22.08
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 1.81 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Seongnam FC have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 17W 17D 36L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Pohang Steelers's form line: 27W 19D 24L from 70 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Pohang Steelers are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Seongnam FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Seongnam FC have posted 1.20 PPG from 35 outings (11W 9D 15L).
On the road, Pohang Steelers have gone 13W 9D 13L from 35 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.24 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 70 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 17W 17D 36L in their last 70 games (0.97 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 27W 19D 24L in their last 70 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Pohang Steelers's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.20 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Pohang Steelers won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
1
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 7 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 46%, Pohang Steelers 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Seongnam FC) and 40% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 34% of games; Pohang Steelers in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play Pohang Steelers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 49% of Pohang Steelers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 40% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC and Pohang Steelers finished level at 1-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 33, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.30 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.81 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pohang Steelers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.39 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 28% | Draw 23% | Pohang Steelers 49%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 47%, Pohang Steelers 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.