Seongnam FC 0-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jeju United FC make the trip to Tancheon Sports Complex to face Seongnam FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Monday 1 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 1.49 xG and Jeju United FC 0.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Jeju United FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 0.405. Data: 0 Seongnam FC games / 0 Jeju United FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 62% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 1.61 | Draw 3.23 | Jeju United FC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Seongnam FC (62%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Jeju United FC's lower xG of 0.40 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Seongnam FC at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Monday 1 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 62% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 28% | xG Seongnam FC 1.49 / Jeju United FC 0.40 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Jeju United FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.520 / away 0.405 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.40
Jeju United FC xG
28%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 07:30 on Monday 1 March 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 62% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 7% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Seongnam FC's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.85x) against Seongnam FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.40.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 21.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (16.8%), 0-0 (16.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
62%
1.61
31%
3.23
7%
14.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
16.8%
Home win
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.88
0.40
Jeju United FC xG
1.61
62%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
14.39
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.57
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
67%
1.49
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
42%
2.39
2%
63.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.6 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 2 | 16.8 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.5%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.40 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Jeju United FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since March 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Seongnam FC have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Seongnam FC
2
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 1, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2022, when Jeju United FC 1-2 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Seongnam FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 0-0 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 1.49 xG and Jeju United FC 0.40 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Seongnam FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Jeju United FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 62% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 7%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.