Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 5 sees Suwon Bluewings travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 07:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Gimcheon Stadium this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1 for Suwon Bluewings and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Suwon Bluewings 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.816 / defence 1.056 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.970 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.241. Data: 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 66 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 38%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon Bluewings 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon Bluewings at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | Suwon Bluewings 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 07:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 / Suwon Bluewings 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.816 / def 1.056 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.970 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Suwon Bluewings xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 07:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 3 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 35% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (3 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 2 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (0.82) and Suwon Bluewings's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.68
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.48
1.27
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.27 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 14D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Suwon Bluewings sit at 1.11 PPG from 37 outings (10W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.03 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 4W 5D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon Bluewings have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (4W 4D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.11 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 14D 15L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 4 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 0, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%, Suwon Bluewings 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 53% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 53% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Suwon Bluewings cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 at Gimcheon Stadium, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.20 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.27 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 35% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 38%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%, Suwon Bluewings 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.