Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-0 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Gwangju FC travel to Gimcheon Stadium to take on Gimcheon Sangmu FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC at Gimcheon Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gwangju FC — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Gwangju FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.50 (Gwangju FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1 for Gwangju FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jun 2024, ended 0–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Gwangju FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% versus Gwangju FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Gwangju FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.54 xG and Gwangju FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.146 / defence 0.926 | Gwangju FC attack 0.888 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.233. Data: 31 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 64 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Gwangju FC 4.00. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Gwangju FC 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.54 / Gwangju FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.146 / def 0.926 | Gwangju FC attack 0.888 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gwangju FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 0 Gwangju FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 50% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (2 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.15) and Gwangju FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.92
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.56
1.01
Gwangju FC xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.01 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 31 games, going 15W 8D 8L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Gwangju FC sit at 1.29 PPG from 31 outings (13W 1D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Gwangju FC have taken 1.07 points per game from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 15W 8D 8L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 13W 1D 17L in their last 31 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Gwangju FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 47% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 47% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gwangju FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gwangju FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.54 xG and Gwangju FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gwangju FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Gwangju FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 25%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48%, Gwangju FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.