Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gimcheon Stadium plays host to Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Gangwon FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 9 August 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.90 for Gangwon FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2024, ended 3–2 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% versus Gangwon FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | Gangwon FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 xG and Gangwon FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.127 / defence 0.888 | Gangwon FC attack 0.939 / defence 1.035. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.130. Data: 25 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 58 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Gangwon FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Gimcheon Sangmu FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Gangwon FC 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 / Gangwon FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.127 / def 0.888 | Gangwon FC attack 0.939 / def 1.035 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Gangwon FC xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 56% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gangwon FC 0W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack rating (1.13) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.94x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 25/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
56%
1.80
24%
4.20
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.66
0.94
Gangwon FC xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
4%
27.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.94 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 13W 7D 5L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gangwon FC's form line: 13W 5D 7L from 25 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.76 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 5W 2D 5L from 12 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.84 scored and 1.48 conceded. Gangwon FC's attacking output running into Gimcheon Sangmu FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gangwon FC in 64%.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 13W 7D 5L in their last 25 games (1.84 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 13W 5D 7L in their last 25 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
5
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Gangwon FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Gangwon FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 58% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.72 xG and Gangwon FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.13 / defence 0.89 against Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 25/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 21%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Gangwon FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.84 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.