Pohang Steelers 1-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pohang Steelers (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Pohang Steelers face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Suwon City FC in K League 1 (matchday 5). Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Pohang Steelers have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Suwon City FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Pohang Steelers's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Suwon City FC managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Pohang Steelers 2–0 Suwon City FC — a Pohang Steelers win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Pohang Steelers and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 76 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pohang Steelers 59% and Suwon City FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 37% | Suwon City FC 63%). Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 47% of cases while Pohang Steelers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.44 xG and Suwon City FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.174 / defence 0.835 | Suwon City FC attack 0.990 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.188. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 37 games and Suwon City FC's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 46% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.17 | Draw 3.36 | Suwon City FC 4.14. Pohang Steelers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 60% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Pohang Steelers 37 games, Suwon City FC 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 46% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.44 / Suwon City FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.174 / def 0.835 | Suwon City FC attack 0.990 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Suwon City FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 46% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 1.17x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.99x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 37 games and Suwon City FC's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.36
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.42
0.98
Suwon City FC xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
17.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.98 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 76 games, going 32W 28D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.11 PPG from 76 outings (22W 18D 36L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 21W 10D 5L across their last 36 home games, a 2.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 36 away games (8W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 32W 28D 16L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon City FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 2.03 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 22 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 1L from the 7 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 July 2025: Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 58%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pohang Steelers) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Pohang Steelers's games and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 78% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.44 xG and Suwon City FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.17 / defence 0.83 against Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 0.93, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 46% | Draw 30% | Suwon City FC 24%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 37%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.