Gangwon FC 3-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Gangwon FC) versus 1.50 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 1 for Daegu FC and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Daegu FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Daegu FC trading profile (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 38% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.006 | Daegu FC attack 1.124 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.147. Data: 37 Gangwon FC games / 37 Daegu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Daegu FC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Daegu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Apr 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Gangwon FC 1.26 / Daegu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.898 / def 1.006 | Daegu FC attack 1.124 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Daegu FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 3 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 33% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Gangwon FC 1W | Draws 2 | Daegu FC 1W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.90) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.20
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Daegu FC xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.30 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 20W 23D 33L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Daegu FC's form line: 23W 30D 23L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.09 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 8W 15D 14L from 37 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 20W 23D 33L in their last 76 games (1.09 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 62%, Daegu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gangwon FC) and 49% (Daegu FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gangwon FC's games and 65% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 49% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 3-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Daegu FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 35%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 38%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.09 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.