Pohang Steelers 0-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Jeju United FC travel to Steelyard Stadium to take on Pohang Steelers. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2021, 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 0.69 xG and Jeju United FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.768 / defence 1.334 | Jeju United FC attack 0.919 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 0.983. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Pohang Steelers games / 11 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 21% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 48%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Jeju United FC 2.08. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Pohang Steelers's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeju United FC at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 21% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 35% | xG Pohang Steelers 0.69 / Jeju United FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.768 / def 1.334 | Jeju United FC attack 0.919 / def 0.952 | league avg home 0.947 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Jeju United FC xG
35%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 21% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pohang Steelers's attack rating (0.77) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
21%
4.70
30%
3.29
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
1.90
1.21
Jeju United FC xG
4.70
21%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
6%
15.70
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 18.1 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.5 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.21 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Pohang Steelers
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Pohang Steelers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Jeju United FC finished level at 0-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.69 xG and Jeju United FC 1.21 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.77 / defence 1.33 against Jeju United FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.95, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 21% | Draw 30% | Jeju United FC 48%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.