Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 37%, yet in-form Jeonbuk Motors provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 April 2026, 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jeonbuk Motors are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 55% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.217 / defence 1.146 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.167 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.128. Data: 38 Jeonbuk Motors games / 37 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 62% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.217 / def 1.146 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.167 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 31% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (7 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 3W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.22) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.15
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.88
1.51
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.51
9%
10.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.51 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 76 games, going 35W 20D 21L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.53 PPG from 76 outings (32W 20D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.64 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 19W 11D 8L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.18 points per game from 38 outings (11W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 20D 21L in their last 76 games (1.64 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.79 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 68%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 34% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 34% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.51 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.22 / defence 1.15 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.96, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 31% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 37%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.64 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.