Jeonbuk Motors 3-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jeonbuk Motors (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeonbuk Motors face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 June 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 6W 2D 2L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon City FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Jeonbuk Motors's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across 8 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jeonbuk Motors and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Jeonbuk Motors — key trading statistics (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 50% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 xG and Suwon City FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.278 / defence 0.909 | Suwon City FC attack 0.689 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.134 / away 1.215. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Jeonbuk Motors games / 51 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 58% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 17%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Suwon City FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Jun 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 58% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 / Suwon City FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.278 / def 0.909 | Suwon City FC attack 0.689 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.134 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Suwon City FC xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 17 June 2025 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 58% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Record (8 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 5W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.28x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.69x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.07
17%
5.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.39
0.76
Suwon City FC xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.78
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
3%
29.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.76 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 28W 21D 29L from 78 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Suwon City FC, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 37L across 78 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.14 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 17W 12D 10L from 39 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon City FC's away record stands at 11W 8D 20L across 39 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 28W 21D 29L in their last 78 games (1.35 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Suwon City FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.62 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 62%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Suwon City FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon City FC 3-2 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.63 xG and Suwon City FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Suwon City FC attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 58% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 17%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.35 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.