Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Seongnam FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 14 September 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Seongnam FC have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Seongnam FC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.20 (Seongnam FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Jeonbuk Motors have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Seongnam FC have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 3–2 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jeonbuk Motors and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 52% versus Seongnam FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Seongnam FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Seongnam FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.898 / defence 0.923 | Seongnam FC attack 0.790 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.291. Data: 64 Jeonbuk Motors games / 64 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Seongnam FC 4.17. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Jeonbuk Motors 70% | Seongnam FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 / Seongnam FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.898 / def 0.923 | Seongnam FC attack 0.790 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Seongnam FC xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 14 September 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 50% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
Record (5 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 4W | Draws 1 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Seongnam FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (0.90) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.83
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.44
0.94
Seongnam FC xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.94 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 69 games, going 37W 20D 12L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Seongnam FC sit at 0.99 PPG from 69 outings (17W 17D 35L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 17W 11D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Seongnam FC have taken 0.76 points per game from 34 outings (6W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Seongnam FC are on 0.93 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Seongnam FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 37W 20D 12L in their last 69 games (1.90 PPG), while Seongnam FC have gone 17W 17D 35L in their last 69 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Seongnam FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.82 PPG; Seongnam FC away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Seongnam FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Seongnam FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2022, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Seongnam FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 56%, Seongnam FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 47% (Seongnam FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Seongnam FC in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Seongnam FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 47% of Seongnam FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 47% of Seongnam FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Seongnam FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Seongnam FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Seongnam FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.50 xG and Seongnam FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Seongnam FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.90 / defence 0.92 against Seongnam FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.19, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Draw 26% | Seongnam FC 24%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 44%, Seongnam FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Seongnam FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.99. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Seongnam FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.