Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 07:40 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeonbuk Motors have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Jeonbuk Motors, 1.50 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jeonbuk Motors have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Jeonbuk Motors 2W, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jeonbuk Motors goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 55% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.76 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.516 / defence 1.020 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.144 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.252. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.516 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Jeonbuk Motors games / 47 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.22 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 07:40 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.76 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.516 / def 1.020 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.144 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:40 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 44% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (9 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 2W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.52) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (1.14x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.95
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.22
1.46
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.46 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Jeonbuk Motors have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 35W 20D 21L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 36W 16D 24L from 76 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Jeonbuk Motors against 1.63 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 1.84 PPG from 37 outings (19W 11D 7L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 15W 9D 13L from 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 35W 20D 21L in their last 76 games (1.64 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.84 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 on 14 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 68%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 60% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's matches and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.76 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.52 / defence 1.02 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.11, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 31%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.64 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.