Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Jeju United FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 2W 5D 3L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this season.
Jeju United FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jeonbuk Motors are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jeju United FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 52% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Jeju United FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.54 xG and Jeju United FC 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.000 / defence 1.103 | Jeju United FC attack 1.012 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.210. Data: 55 Jeonbuk Motors games / 55 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Jeju United FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 70% | Jeju United FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.54 / Jeju United FC 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.000 / def 1.103 | Jeju United FC attack 1.012 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Jeju United FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Jeju United FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 41% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.00) and Jeju United FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
41%
2.42
26%
3.89
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Jeju United FC xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.35 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 34W 16D 10L from 60 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 16L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jeju United FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 16W 8D 6L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeju United FC's away record stands at 10W 11D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 34W 16D 10L in their last 60 games (1.97 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 21W 23D 16L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Jeju United FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.87 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
3
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, Jeju United FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-3 Jeju United FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 57%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 50% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Jeju United FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 50% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Jeju United FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Jeju United FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.54 xG and Jeju United FC 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Jeju United FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 41% | Draw 26% | Jeju United FC 33%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 42%, Jeju United FC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.