Jeju United FC 1-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Jeju United FC welcome Suwon City FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.63 xG and Suwon City FC 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.105 / defence 1.087 | Suwon City FC attack 0.636 / defence 1.604. League average goals — home 0.917 / away 0.987. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.604 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Jeju United FC games / 13 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 59% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Jeju United FC (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 59% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 41% | xG Jeju United FC 1.63 / Suwon City FC 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.105 / def 1.087 | Suwon City FC attack 0.636 / def 1.604 | league avg home 0.917 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Suwon City FC xG
41%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 8 May 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 59% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.10x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.82
15%
6.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.31
0.68
Suwon City FC xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
6.88
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
3%
34.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.68 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Jeju United FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 6, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon City FC?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeju United FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Jeju United FC 1-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.63 xG and Suwon City FC 0.68 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 0.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.09 against Suwon City FC attack 0.64 / defence 1.60, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 59% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 15%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.