Jeju United FC 1-2 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Anyang at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeju United FC host FC Anyang at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
FC Anyang — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Anyang's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.60 (FC Anyang). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC Anyang have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Jeju United FC.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Anyang winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Anyang have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (38 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 53% versus FC Anyang 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 42% | FC Anyang 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 0.87 xG and FC Anyang 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.873 / defence 0.999 | FC Anyang attack 1.087 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.042 / away 1.243. Data: 47 Jeju United FC games / 47 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 23% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 47%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | FC Anyang 2.13. FC Anyang hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 50% | FC Anyang 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 23% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Jeju United FC 0.87 / FC Anyang 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.873 / def 0.999 | FC Anyang attack 1.087 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.042 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Anyang xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 FC Anyang.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 23% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
Record (5 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 4W.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against FC Anyang's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
23%
4.41
31%
3.27
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.22
1.35
FC Anyang xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.01
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.35 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jeju United FC come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 9D 18L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (14W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.11 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jeju United FC's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (5W 3D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.29 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 games (1.11 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 14W 7D 17L in their last 38 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
5
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
From 7 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-0 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Anyang?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 47%, FC Anyang 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Jeju United FC) and 59% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 29% of games; FC Anyang in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Jeju United FC's games and 65% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 59% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.87 xG and FC Anyang 1.35 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against FC Anyang attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 23% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 47%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 42%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.11 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.