Jeju United FC 2-2 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Daegu FC have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Jeju United FC's favour (1.20 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Daegu FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 56% versus Daegu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 52% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.86 xG and Daegu FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.036 / defence 0.974 | Daegu FC attack 0.826 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.298. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Jeju United FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Jeju United FC games / 64 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 56% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Daegu FC 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Jeju United FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Daegu FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 56% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeju United FC 1.86 / Daegu FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.036 / def 0.974 | Daegu FC attack 0.826 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Daegu FC xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 13 September 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 2 - 2 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 56% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.04x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (0.83x) against Jeju United FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.44
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.90
1.04
Daegu FC xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
16%
6.43
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
30.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.04 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 24W 25D 20L from 69 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 23D 25L across 69 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.25 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 12W 12D 10L from 34 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 12D 15L across 34 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.10 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 69 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 25D 20L in their last 69 games (1.41 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 21W 23D 25L in their last 69 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.41 PPG; Daegu FC away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 62%, Daegu FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jeju United FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jeju United FC's games and 62% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 32, as Jeju United FC and Daegu FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.86 xG and Daegu FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against Daegu FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.28, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 56% | Draw 23% | Daegu FC 21%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 52%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Daegu FC's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.41 PPG, Daegu FC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.