Incheon United 0-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Incheon United welcome Suwon City FC to Sungui Arena Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon City FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Suwon City FC's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Incheon United have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Incheon United have won 1, Suwon City FC 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Incheon United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Incheon United in-play and half-time data (76 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 50% versus Suwon City FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 38% | Suwon City FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.44 xG and Suwon City FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 1.012 / defence 0.994 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 0.972. Data: 33 Incheon United games / 33 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon City FC 4.00. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | Suwon City FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Incheon United 1.44 / Suwon City FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 1.012 / def 0.994 | Suwon City FC attack 1.021 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.291 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Suwon City FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 47% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Record (7 meetings): Incheon United 1W | Draws 5 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 1.01x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
47%
2.14
28%
3.54
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.43
0.99
Suwon City FC xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.99 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Incheon United come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 29D 20L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.11 PPG from 76 outings (22W 18D 36L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.45 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Incheon United's home form reads 13W 14D 9L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 0.92 points per game from 36 outings (8W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Incheon United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Incheon United are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.39 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC in 63%.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 27W 29D 20L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 22W 18D 36L in their last 76 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon City FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.47 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Incheon United and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Suwon City FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jul 2024, when Suwon City FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Incheon United's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Incheon United
5
Draws
4
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 1, Suwon City FC have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2024, when Incheon United 1-4 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon City FC?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 47%, Suwon City FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Incheon United) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 33% of games; Suwon City FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Incheon United's recent matches and 53% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Incheon United's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.44 xG and Suwon City FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Suwon City FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 47% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 25%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 38%, Suwon City FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.45 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.