Incheon United 2-2 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 April 2022 at 08:30 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Incheon United have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sungui Arena Park — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sungui Arena Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Jeju United FC arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 45% versus Jeju United FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Jeju United FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 0.86 xG and Jeju United FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.841 / defence 0.766 | Jeju United FC attack 1.066 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.236. Incheon United's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Incheon United games / 41 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 29% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | Jeju United FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 20% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 29% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Incheon United 0.86 / Jeju United FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.841 / def 0.766 | Jeju United FC attack 1.066 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Jeju United FC xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 2 - 2 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 29% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (1.07x) against Incheon United's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
29%
3.48
35%
2.88
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Incheon United xG
Total xG
1.88
1.01
Jeju United FC xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
10%
9.56
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 15.5 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.01 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 12W 11D 15L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 12W 16D 10L from 38 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Incheon United against 1.37 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.42 PPG from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 5W 9D 5L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 61%.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 12W 16D 10L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeju United FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.42 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 32%, Jeju United FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Incheon United) and 47% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 37%; Incheon United have failed to score in 47% of games; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Incheon United's recent matches and 53% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Incheon United's recent games and 47% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Incheon United and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United and Jeju United FC finished level at 2-2 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 0.86 xG and Jeju United FC 1.01 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jeju United FC outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.84 / defence 0.77 against Jeju United FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 29% | Draw 35% | Jeju United FC 36%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Jeju United FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.24 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.