Incheon United 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Incheon United at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Incheon United vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Incheon United and Jeju United FC meet at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 September 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Incheon United have posted 3W 4D 3L at Sungui Arena Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sungui Arena Park this season.
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Jeju United FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Incheon United's 2.00 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Jeju United FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Incheon United, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Jeju United FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 48% versus Jeju United FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 39% | Jeju United FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.39 xG and Jeju United FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.915 / defence 0.975 | Jeju United FC attack 0.963 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.142. Data: 62 Incheon United games / 62 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 44% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Jeju United FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 40% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 44% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Incheon United 1.39 / Jeju United FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.915 / def 0.975 | Jeju United FC attack 0.963 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Incheon United 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC part of?
Incheon United vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 44% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Incheon United and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Record (3 meetings): Incheon United 2W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Incheon United's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.96x) against Incheon United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.65
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.46
1.07
Jeju United FC xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
7%
14.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.07 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 25D 19L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Jeju United FC's form line: 23W 18D 26L from 67 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Incheon United against 1.30 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.38 PPG from 34 outings (11W 14D 9L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 14W 5D 15L from 34 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 23W 25D 19L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 23W 18D 26L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Jeju United FC away?
Incheon United's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.38 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Incheon United
1
Draws
4
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Jeju United FC?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 44%, Jeju United FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Incheon United) and 56% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Incheon United have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Incheon United's recent matches and 56% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Incheon United's recent games and 56% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Incheon United edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.39 xG and Jeju United FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.92 / defence 0.97 against Jeju United FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 44% | Draw 27% | Jeju United FC 29%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 39%, Jeju United FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.40 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.