Gwangju FC 0-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.34 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.973 / defence 1.150 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 0.439. Data: 1 Gwangju FC games / 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 57% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 1.75 | Draw 2.94 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Gwangju FC (57%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Ulsan Hyundai FC's lower xG of 0.43 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 34% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 57% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 29% | xG Gwangju FC 1.34 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.43 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.973 / def 1.150 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.197 / away 0.439 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.43
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
29%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 57% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 9% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.97x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.85x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.43.
These ratings are built from 1/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (18.3%), 2-0 (15.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
57%
1.76
34%
2.92
9%
11.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
2 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
1.77
0.43
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
11.27
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.49
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
65%
1.54
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
2%
43.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 22.9 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.3 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.43 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Ulsan Hyundai FC defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gwangju FC 0-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.34 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.43 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gwangju FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 57% | Draw 34% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 9%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Ulsan Hyundai FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.