Gwangju FC 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Gwangju FC's 2.30 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 36% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.24 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 1.052 / defence 0.825 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.061 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: 33 Gwangju FC games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Gwangju FC 1.24 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 1.052 / def 0.825 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.061 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 41% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.06x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 33/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
41%
2.43
30%
3.35
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.23
0.99
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.99 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 33 games, going 15W 9D 9L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 2.03 PPG from 33 outings (20W 7D 6L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Gwangju FC against 2.03 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 8W 3D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.88 points per game from 16 outings (9W 3D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.70 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 15W 9D 9L in their last 33 games (1.64 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 7D 6L in their last 33 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.69 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 19% (Gwangju FC) and 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Gwangju FC) and 56% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 38%; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 56% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.24 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.99 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.82 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 29%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 30%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.64 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.