Gwangju FC 1-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gwangju FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gwangju FC's home record at Gwangju Football Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gwangju Football Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Jeju United FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Gwangju FC half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 41% versus Jeju United FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 37% | Jeju United FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.93 xG and Jeju United FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.960 / defence 0.959 | Jeju United FC attack 0.806 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 0.980 / away 1.126. Data: 27 Gwangju FC games / 27 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | Jeju United FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Jeju United FC's lower xG of 0.87 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Gwangju FC 30% | Jeju United FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Gwangju FC 0.93 / Jeju United FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.960 / def 0.959 | Jeju United FC attack 0.806 / def 0.991 | league avg home 0.980 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Jeju United FC xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC 1 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 35% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.96x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.81x) against Gwangju FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.02
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
1.80
0.87
Jeju United FC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 14.4 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.87 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 27 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 8W 5D 14L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jeju United FC's form line: 7W 13D 7L from 27 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.26 for Jeju United FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
On the road, Jeju United FC have gone 3W 7D 3L from 13 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.11 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC in 63%.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Blended
Jeju United FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 8W 5D 14L in their last 27 games (1.07 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 7W 13D 7L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.38 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 6, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gwangju FC 1-2 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 31%, Jeju United FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Gwangju FC and 38% for Jeju United FC.
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 46%; Gwangju FC have failed to score in 46% of games; Jeju United FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 46% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 38% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Jeju United FC finished level at 1-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.93 xG and Jeju United FC 0.87 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Jeju United FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 35% | Draw 33% | Jeju United FC 32%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 37%, Jeju United FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.07 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.