Gangwon FC 0-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Chuncheon Songam Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Gangwon FC's 1.40 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Suwon City FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Gangwon FC, 2 for Suwon City FC and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Suwon City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 55% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 40% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.31 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.884 / defence 0.876 | Suwon City FC attack 0.790 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.044. Data: 43 Gangwon FC games / 43 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 4.76. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. This conflicts with form data: Gangwon FC 50% | Suwon City FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Gangwon FC 1.31 / Suwon City FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.884 / def 0.876 | Suwon City FC attack 0.790 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Suwon City FC xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (7 meetings): Gangwon FC 3W | Draws 2 | Suwon City FC 2W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.88) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.79x) against Gangwon FC's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.48
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.72
Suwon City FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
6%
18.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.4 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.72 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 78 games, going 26W 24D 28L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.14 PPG from 78 outings (24W 17D 37L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.14 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 16W 13D 10L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.05 points per game from 39 outings (11W 8D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 26W 24D 28L in their last 78 games (1.31 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.56 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 64%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gangwon FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Gangwon FC's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gangwon FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.31 xG and Suwon City FC 0.72 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gangwon FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.88 against Suwon City FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 21%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 40%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.