Gangwon FC 1-2 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC meet at Gangneung Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gangwon FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC at Gangneung Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gangwon FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Suwon City FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Gangwon FC, 0 for Suwon City FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 52% versus Suwon City FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 39% | Suwon City FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.72 xG and Suwon City FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.821 / defence 1.030 | Suwon City FC attack 0.948 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.140. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing Gangwon FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Gangwon FC games / 59 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 4.17. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 60% | Suwon City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Gangwon FC 1.72 / Suwon City FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.821 / def 1.030 | Suwon City FC attack 0.948 / def 1.494 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Suwon City FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC 1 - 2 Suwon City FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 51% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (1 meetings): Gangwon FC 0W | Draws 1 | Suwon City FC 0W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.82) and Suwon City FC's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.95x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.86
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.83
1.11
Suwon City FC xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
4%
23.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.3 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.11 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 18D 29L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.11 PPG from 64 outings (19W 14D 31L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.11 for Suwon City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 10W 7D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (6W 7D 18L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.31 scored and 1.83 conceded.
Last 64 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 17W 18D 29L in their last 64 games (1.08 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 19W 14D 31L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
3
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 55%, Suwon City FC 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Gangwon FC) and 55% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Suwon City FC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Suwon City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 48% of Suwon City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 55% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Gangwon FC 1-2 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.72 xG and Suwon City FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.03 against Suwon City FC attack 0.95 / defence 1.49, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 51% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 24%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Suwon City FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 39%, Suwon City FC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.08 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.