Gangwon FC 3-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gangwon FC face Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gangwon FC welcome Daegu FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 5). Kick-off is Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Gangwon FC — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gangwon FC's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Daegu FC have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Gangwon FC) versus 1.50 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Gangwon FC's games and 60% of Daegu FC's (from Gangwon FC's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Gangwon FC, 1 for Daegu FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Gangwon FC 0–1 Daegu FC — a Daegu FC win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gangwon FC trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Daegu FC trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 54% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 38% | Daegu FC 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gangwon FC surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.898 / defence 1.006 | Daegu FC attack 1.124 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.147. Data: built from Gangwon FC's last 37 games and Daegu FC's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 35%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.99 | Draw 3.20 | Daegu FC 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gangwon FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Gangwon FC 37 games, Daegu FC 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Gangwon FC 1.26 / Daegu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.898 / def 1.006 | Daegu FC attack 1.124 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Daegu FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Wednesday 3 April 2024 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC 3 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 33% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gangwon FC and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (0.90) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gangwon FC's last 37 games and Daegu FC's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.20
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.30
Daegu FC xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
10%
9.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.30 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 20W 23D 33L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Daegu FC's form line: 23W 30D 23L from 76 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.09 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.19 PPG from their last 37 home games (11W 11D 15L).
On the road, Daegu FC have gone 8W 15D 14L from their last 37 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC Form FAQs
What form are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 20W 23D 33L in their last 76 games (1.09 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.19 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Apr 2024, when Gangwon FC won Gangwon FC 3-0 Daegu FC.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
4
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gangwon FC have won 4, Daegu FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2025: Daegu FC 2-2 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Daegu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 62%, Daegu FC 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gangwon FC) and 49% (Daegu FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gangwon FC vs Daegu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gangwon FC and Daegu FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gangwon FC's games and 65% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gangwon FC and Daegu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 49% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Daegu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 60% of Daegu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gangwon FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daegu FC 3-0 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Daegu FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Daegu FC 35%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 38%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.09 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.