FC Seoul 2-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Seoul face FC Anyang.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Seoul World Cup Stadium to face FC Seoul in K League 1 (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Form
FC Seoul (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Seoul's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Seoul are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 1.28 xG and FC Anyang 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 1.050 / defence 0.949 | FC Anyang attack 0.846 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.244. Data: built from FC Seoul's last 34 games and FC Anyang's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 2.33 | Draw 3.55 | FC Anyang 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (FC Seoul 34 games, FC Anyang 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG FC Seoul 1.28 / FC Anyang 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 1.050 / def 0.949 | FC Anyang attack 0.846 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Anyang xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Seoul vs FC Anyang FAQs
What time does FC Seoul vs FC Anyang kick off?
FC Seoul vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs FC Anyang?
FC Seoul 2 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is FC Seoul vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs FC Anyang part of?
FC Seoul vs FC Anyang is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 43% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both FC Seoul and FC Anyang will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will FC Seoul vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC Seoul's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.85x) against FC Seoul's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from FC Seoul's last 34 games and FC Anyang's last 1, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
43%
2.33
28%
3.55
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
2.28
1.00
FC Anyang xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Seoul vs FC Anyang Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for FC Seoul and 1.00 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
FC Seoul (Home) vs FC Anyang (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2025 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won FC Anyang 0-7 FC Seoul on 22 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Seoul have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Seoul
3
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Seoul vs FC Anyang H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and FC Anyang?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Seoul have won 2, FC Anyang have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and FC Anyang last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: FC Anyang 0-7 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and FC Anyang?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out FC Anyang 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat FC Anyang 2-1 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 1.28 xG and FC Anyang 1.00 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against FC Anyang attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 34/1 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 43% | Draw 28% | FC Anyang 29%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.