Gwangju FC 2-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gwangju FC face FC Anyang.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gwangju FC welcome FC Anyang to Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 3). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gwangju FC have gone 2W 4D 4L — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Gwangju FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 1.16 xG and FC Anyang 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.833 / defence 0.870 | FC Anyang attack 0.864 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.245. Data: built from Gwangju FC's last 35 games and FC Anyang's last 2. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 29%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 2.45 | Draw 3.36 | FC Anyang 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gwangju FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's sample (Gwangju FC 35 games, FC Anyang 2) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Gwangju FC 1.16 / FC Anyang 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.833 / def 0.870 | FC Anyang attack 0.864 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Anyang xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang FAQs
What time does Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC 2 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 41% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gwangju FC and FC Anyang will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gwangju FC's attack rating (0.83) and FC Anyang's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gwangju FC's last 35 games and FC Anyang's last 2, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.36
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
FC Anyang xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 0.94 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Gwangju FC (Home) vs FC Anyang (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gwangju FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2025. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2026, when FC Anyang won Gwangju FC 2-5 FC Anyang.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Gwangju FC
3
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Gwangju FC have won 3, FC Anyang have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Gwangju FC 1-1 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and FC Anyang?
Gwangju FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out FC Anyang 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat FC Anyang 2-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.16 xG and FC Anyang 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.87 against FC Anyang attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 29%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.