FC Anyang 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Anyang host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of FC Anyang's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Anyang register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Anyang 66% and Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 52% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.00 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.920 / defence 1.442 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.962 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.323. Data: 62 FC Anyang games / 62 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 18% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.85. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 70% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 18% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Anyang 1.00 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.920 / def 1.442 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.962 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Anyang 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 18% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (6 meetings): FC Anyang 2W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.92) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
18%
5.60
28%
3.61
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.83
1.83
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
5.60
18%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.26
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
35.04
20%
4.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.83 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, FC Anyang have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 18D 27L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 25W 16D 26L from 67 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Anyang on 1.25 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Anyang have posted 1.27 PPG from 33 outings (11W 9D 13L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 10W 10D 13L from 33 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Anyang are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 22W 18D 27L in their last 67 games (1.25 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 25W 16D 26L in their last 67 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
FC Anyang's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.27 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FC Anyang's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when FC Anyang 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 64%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Anyang) and 39% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: FC Anyang have failed to score in 30% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of FC Anyang's games and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Anyang vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Anyang's recent games and 39% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.00 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.83 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.92 / defence 1.44 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 18% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 52%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.25 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.