FC Anyang 1-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anyang Stadium plays host to FC Anyang versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.857 / defence 1.150 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.095 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.029. Data: 3 FC Anyang games / 36 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 29% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 29% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG FC Anyang 1.03 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.857 / def 1.150 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.095 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
FC Anyang 1 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 29% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC away split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Anyang's attack rating (0.86) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (1.09x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (3/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
29%
3.51
30%
3.31
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.33
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
15%
6.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.30 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won 4-1 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FC Anyang
2
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 1, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when FC Anyang 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Anyang.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Anyang 1-3 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.03 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.02, drawn from 3/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 29% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.