FC Anyang 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FC Anyang at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as FC Anyang welcome Jeju United FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 March 2026 at 07:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 2D 3L at Anyang Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jeju United FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Anyang 1.60 PPG, Jeju United FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for FC Anyang, 1 for Jeju United FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with FC Anyang winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

FC Anyang in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 60% versus Jeju United FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 55% | Jeju United FC 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.62 xG and Jeju United FC 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 1.068 / defence 0.971 | Jeju United FC attack 0.947 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.304. Data: 34 FC Anyang games / 34 Jeju United FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: FC Anyang 44% | Draw 32% | Jeju United FC 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Jeju United FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Anyang 60% | Jeju United FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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