FC Anyang 2-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as FC Anyang welcome Jeju United FC to Anyang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeju United FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Jeju United FC's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.963 / defence 1.105 | Jeju United FC attack 0.712 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.086. Data: 10 FC Anyang games / 42 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 41% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Jeju United FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Anyang at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 41% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG FC Anyang 1.09 / Jeju United FC 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.963 / def 1.105 | Jeju United FC attack 0.712 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC?
FC Anyang 2 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 41% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both FC Anyang and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Jeju United FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Anyang and Jeju United FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Jeju United FC away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Anyang's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Jeju United FC's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Jeju United FC's attack versus FC Anyang's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.22
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
1.94
0.85
Jeju United FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
9%
10.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 12.2 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for FC Anyang and 0.85 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
Jeju United FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Anyang and Jeju United FC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Anyang's record when hosting Jeju United FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
FC Anyang
0
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Jeju United FC?
From 7 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 5, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-0 FC Anyang.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Jeju United FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Jeju United FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Jeju United FC 2-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 1.09 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Jeju United FC attack 0.71 / defence 0.96, drawn from 10/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 41% | Draw 31% | Jeju United FC 28%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.