Daejeon Citizen 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 2 sees Daegu FC travel to Daejeon World Cup Stadium to take on Daejeon Citizen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 05:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daejeon Citizen stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen's home record at Daejeon World Cup Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Daegu FC — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 1.80 PPG, Daegu FC 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 2 for Daegu FC and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Daejeon Citizen in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 61% versus Daegu FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 49% | Daegu FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 0.99 xG and Daegu FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.791 / defence 0.843 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Daejeon Citizen's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 66 Daejeon Citizen games / 66 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 33% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Daegu FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 50% | Daegu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 33% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Daejeon Citizen 0.99 / Daegu FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.791 / def 0.843 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Daegu FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Daejeon Citizen 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 33% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
Record (6 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 2W | Draws 2 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daejeon Citizen's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Daegu FC's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
33%
3.04
30%
3.29
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.04
1.06
Daegu FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.7 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.06 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 72 games, going 21W 26D 25L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Daegu FC sit at 1.28 PPG from 72 outings (22W 26D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daejeon Citizen on 1.24 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 14W 11D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Daegu FC have taken 1.11 points per game from 36 outings (10W 10D 16L).
The Goals Picture
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 21W 26D 25L in their last 72 games (1.24 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 22W 26D 24L in their last 72 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Daegu FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.47 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 20 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daejeon Citizen have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
2
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 6, Daegu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 53%, Daegu FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Daejeon Citizen) and 42% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 31% of games; Daegu FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Daegu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 50% of Daegu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 42% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 0.99 xG and Daegu FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.79 / defence 0.84 against Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 33% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 37%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 49%, Daegu FC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daejeon Citizen 1.24 PPG, Daegu FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.