Daegu FC 3-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Daegu FC welcome Suwon City FC to DGB Daegu Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon City FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Daegu FC) versus 0.60 (Suwon City FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Daegu FC have won 1, Suwon City FC 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Jul 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 54% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Suwon City FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.118 / defence 0.982 | Suwon City FC attack 0.874 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.244. Data: 34 Daegu FC games / 34 Suwon City FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Suwon City FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Daegu FC 70% | Suwon City FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Daegu FC 1.26 / Suwon City FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.118 / def 0.982 | Suwon City FC attack 0.874 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC 3 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 41% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daegu FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 4 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.58
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.07
Suwon City FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.07 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 23W 27D 28L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Suwon City FC's form line: 24W 17D 37L from 78 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.23 PPG, Suwon City FC on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 39 outings (13W 17D 9L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 11W 8D 20L from 39 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 27D 28L in their last 78 games (1.23 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Daegu FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
5
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Suwon City FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 56%, Suwon City FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Daegu FC) and 56% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Daegu FC's games and 59% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daegu FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Daegu FC's recent games and 56% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Suwon City FC 3-1 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.26 xG and Suwon City FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Suwon City FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.87, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 41% | Draw 28% | Suwon City FC 31%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Suwon City FC 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.23 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daegu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.