Daegu FC 1-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to DGB Daegu Bank Park to take on Daegu FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 08:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Daegu FC at DGB Daegu Bank Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Daegu FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Daegu FC, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Daegu FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 61% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 56% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.22 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.941 / defence 1.012 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.241. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 33 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 39% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 40% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 39% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Daegu FC 1.22 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.941 / def 1.012 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.884 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 39% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (3 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 2 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Daegu FC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Daegu FC's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
39%
2.60
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.33
1.11
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.60
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.11 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 10W 14D 12L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 8W 13D 15L from 36 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Daegu FC on 1.22 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 3W 8D 7L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daegu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Daegu FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.19 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daegu FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 36 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 10W 14D 12L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 8W 13D 15L in their last 36 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.61 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2024, when Daegu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Daegu FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Daegu FC
3
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 3, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 44%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Daegu FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 61% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Daegu FC's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Round - 4, as Daegu FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.22 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.01 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 39% | Draw 28% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 56%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.22 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.