Bucheon FC 1995 1-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Anyang at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees FC Anyang travel to Bucheon Stadium to take on Bucheon FC 1995. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bucheon FC 1995 stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bucheon FC 1995, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bucheon Stadium, Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Anyang have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bucheon FC 1995 1.00 PPG, FC Anyang 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 1, FC Anyang 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2026, ended 2–3 with FC Anyang winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bucheon FC 1995 trading profile (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Anyang trading profile (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bucheon FC 1995 41% versus FC Anyang 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bucheon FC 1995 41% | FC Anyang 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bucheon FC 1995 1.27 xG and FC Anyang 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.958 / defence 1.166 | FC Anyang attack 0.996 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.319. Data: 25 Bucheon FC 1995 games / 58 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 29% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 41%. Fair-value odds: Bucheon FC 1995 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | FC Anyang 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Anyang are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Anyang offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Bucheon FC 1995 40% | FC Anyang 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Bucheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bucheon FC 1995 29% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Bucheon FC 1995 1.27 / FC Anyang 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.958 / def 1.166 | FC Anyang attack 0.996 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: FC Anyang (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Expected Goals
1.53
FC Anyang xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang kick off?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang kicked off at 10:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Bucheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang?
Bucheon FC 1995 1 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Bucheon Stadium.
What competition is Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang part of?
Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Bucheon FC 1995 a 29% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Anyang the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang?
Record (2 meetings): Bucheon FC 1995 1W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang in?
Bucheon FC 1995 (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bucheon FC 1995's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, FC Anyang's attack versus Bucheon FC 1995's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Anyang Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.31
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Bucheon FC 1995 xG
Total xG
2.80
1.53
FC Anyang xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
12%
8.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.3 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.53 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bucheon FC 1995 come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 9D 10L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Bucheon FC 1995 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Anyang sit at 1.26 PPG from 27 outings (8W 10D 9L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bucheon FC 1995 on 1.22 PPG, FC Anyang on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bucheon FC 1995's home form reads 3W 5D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Anyang have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Anyang come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bucheon FC 1995 are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.26 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 70%.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bucheon FC 1995
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Bucheon FC 1995 have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 8W 10D 9L in their last 27 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bucheon FC 1995 at home or FC Anyang away?
FC Anyang's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bucheon FC 1995 at home: 1.08 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Bucheon FC 1995 or FC Anyang been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bucheon FC 1995 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Anyang in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bucheon FC 1995's record when hosting FC Anyang specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bucheon FC 1995
1
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang?
From 3 meetings on record, Bucheon FC 1995 have won 1, FC Anyang have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Bucheon FC 1995 1-1 FC Anyang.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bucheon FC 1995 see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bucheon FC 1995 46%, FC Anyang 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bucheon FC 1995) and 46% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Bucheon FC 1995 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Bucheon FC 1995 have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bucheon FC 1995 home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bucheon FC 1995 play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Bucheon FC 1995's games and 69% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bucheon FC 1995 vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bucheon FC 1995's recent games and 46% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Bucheon FC 1995 have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bucheon FC 1995 and FC Anyang finished level at 1-1 at Bucheon Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bucheon FC 1995 1.27 xG and FC Anyang 1.53 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.96 / defence 1.17 against FC Anyang attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bucheon FC 1995 29% | Draw 30% | FC Anyang 41%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bucheon FC 1995 41%, FC Anyang 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Anyang's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bucheon FC 1995 1.22 PPG, FC Anyang 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.