Damac 2-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Damac face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC meet at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Damac have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Damac have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Damac's games and 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Al-Hilal Saudi FC, who have 5 wins from 7 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2024, ended Damac 2–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a Al-Hilal Saudi FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 83%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 60% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 52% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Damac surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 83% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.984 / defence 1.096 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.457 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.337. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.457, which lifts their away xG to 2.14. Data: built from Damac's last 52 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 52.
Result probabilities: Damac 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%. Fair-value odds: Damac 4.10 | Draw 4.82 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.38 / 2.14) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Damac's last 10 home games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Damac 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Damac 1.38 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.14 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.984 / def 1.096 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.457 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Damac xG
Expected Goals
2.14
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC FAQs
What time does Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.46x) against Damac's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 2.14.
These ratings are built from Damac's last 52 games and Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
24%
4.10
21%
4.82
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
0 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Damac xG
Total xG
3.51
2.14
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.10
24%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
12%
8.47
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
3%
34.71
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Damac and 2.14 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Damac's recent record stands at 16W 15D 21L from 52 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 46W 4D 2L across 52 games — 2.73 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Damac heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Damac have managed 10W 9D 7L from their last 26 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 21W 3D 2L across their last 26 away games, a 2.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 3.04 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Damac (Home) vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Damac
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Form FAQs
What form are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 15D 21L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 46W 4D 2L in their last 52 (2.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.50 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.54 PPG.
Have Damac or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Damac
3
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Damac have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 58%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Damac and 77% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 38%; Damac have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Damac vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Damac's games and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Damac's matches and 77% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Damac's recent matches and 88% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Hilal Saudi FC finished level at 2-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.38 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.14 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.98 / defence 1.10 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.46 / defence 0.89, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 24% | Draw 21% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.73 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.