Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Wehda Club face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Nassr in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wehda Club's overall Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wehda Club's home record at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Nassr have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Al-Nassr are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wehda Club register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Nassr in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Al-Nassr hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al Wehda Club — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wehda Club 62% and Al-Nassr 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Wehda Club 64% | Al-Nassr 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Nassr 2.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.954 / defence 1.451 | Al-Nassr attack 1.353 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.394. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — the away xG of 2.74 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Al Wehda Club games / 55 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 16% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 68%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 6.25 | Draw 6.25 | Al-Nassr 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (68%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 2.74) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Wehda Club 70% | Al-Nassr 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Feb 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 16% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Wehda Club 1.30 / Al-Nassr 2.74 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 0.954 / def 1.451 | Al-Nassr attack 1.353 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.74
Al-Nassr xG
68%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 25 February 2025 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 2 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 16% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 68% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 5W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Wehda Club's attack at 0.95x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.35x) against Al Wehda Club's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 2.74.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-3 (7.8%), 1-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
16%
6.27
16%
6.09
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
4.04
2.74
Al-Nassr xG
6.27
16%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.14
Clean Sheet
6%
15.47
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
1%
96.94
18%
5.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.74 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wehda Club come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 10D 32L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Wehda Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Nassr sit at 2.29 PPG from 55 outings (39W 9D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Al Wehda Club — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Wehda Club's home form reads 7W 7D 13L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Nassr have taken 2.44 points per game from 27 outings (21W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wehda Club are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.02 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.64 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wehda Club have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al-Nassr in 69%.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 13W 10D 32L in their last 55 games (0.89 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 39W 9D 7L in their last 55 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.04 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 6-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wehda Club have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Al Wehda Club, 70% for Al-Nassr — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al Wehda Club and 82% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Al Wehda Club's games and 70% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 82% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Wehda Club 0-2 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 1.30 xG and Al-Nassr 2.74 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 0.95 / defence 1.45 against Al-Nassr attack 1.35 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 16% | Draw 16% | Al-Nassr 68%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 64%, Al-Nassr 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.