Al Riyadh 0-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Riyadh at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Riyadh face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Riyadh host Al-Fayha at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off is Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Riyadh — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Al Riyadh have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fayha have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al-Fayha away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Riyadh 1.40 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al Riyadh, 2 for Al-Fayha and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Al Riyadh 0–2 Al-Fayha — a Al-Fayha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al Riyadh in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 56% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al-Fayha 51%). Note also that Al-Fayha surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Al Riyadh recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.22 xG and Al-Fayha 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.790 / defence 0.949 | Al-Fayha attack 0.852 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.372. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.22. Data: built from Al Riyadh's last 55 games and Al-Fayha's last 55.
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 39% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 2.58 | Draw 3.56 | Al-Fayha 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Riyadh are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Riyadh 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 39% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Al Riyadh 1.22 / Al-Fayha 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.790 / def 0.949 | Al-Fayha attack 0.852 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Al-Fayha xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha FAQs
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Al Riyadh 0 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 39% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Riyadh's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al Riyadh's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Riyadh's last 55 games and Al-Fayha's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.56
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.33
1.11
Al-Fayha xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 1.11 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Riyadh come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 16D 23L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.16 PPG from 55 outings (15W 19D 21L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Riyadh on 1.16 PPG, Al-Fayha on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Riyadh's home form reads 8W 9D 10L across their last 27 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 7D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Riyadh (Home) vs Al-Fayha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha Form FAQs
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 16W 16D 23L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 15W 19D 21L in their last 55 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Fayha's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.22 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Riyadh's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al Riyadh
4
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Riyadh have won 0, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 48%, Al-Fayha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Riyadh) and 67% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Fayha in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Riyadh vs Al-Fayha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Al Riyadh's games and 67% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al Riyadh's matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 74% of Al-Fayha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Riyadh's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Al Riyadh and Al-Fayha drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.22 xG and Al-Fayha 1.11 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Riyadh fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Al-Fayha landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.79 / defence 0.95 against Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 1.02, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 39% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 33%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Fayha 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.16 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.