Al Taawon 0-0 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Orubah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al Orubah at Al Taawoun Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 15:20 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon at Al Taawoun Club Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Taawoun Club Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawoun Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Orubah have recorded 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 2W 1D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Taawon have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Al Taawon in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Al Taawon 38% | Al Orubah 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 25% | Al Orubah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 2.10 xG and Al Orubah 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.969 / defence 0.888 | Al Orubah attack 0.701 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.425. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.498 — this is suppressing Al Taawon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Al Taawon games / 16 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 65% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 15%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Al Orubah 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 40% | Al Orubah 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 15:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 65% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Taawon 2.10 / Al Orubah 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.969 / def 0.888 | Al Orubah attack 0.701 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al Orubah xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Orubah kicked off at 15:20 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Orubah?
Al Taawon 0 - 0 Al Orubah.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Orubah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 65% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Orubah?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Orubah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Al Orubah (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Al Orubah's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.10. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.04
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.99
0.89
Al Orubah xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
2%
54.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.89 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Taawon come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 4D 6L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Orubah sit at 0.81 PPG from 16 outings (4W 1D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al Orubah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Taawon's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Al Taawon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Orubah have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.69 scored and 2.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Orubah in 25%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 6W 4D 6L in their last 16 games (1.38 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Orubah away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.88 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Orubah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Orubah in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Orubah runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al Orubah have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al Orubah 3-2 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Orubah?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 50%, Al Orubah 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Al Taawon) and 88% (Al Orubah).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Orubah in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Al Taawon's recent games and 88% of Al Orubah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Taawon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al Orubah finished level at 0-0 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 2.10 xG and Al Orubah 0.89 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Taawon fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Al Orubah landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.89 against Al Orubah attack 0.70 / defence 1.50, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 65% | Draw 20% | Al Orubah 15%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 25%, Al Orubah 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Orubah's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.