Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Nassr at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Nassr to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Nassr — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 3 for Al-Nassr and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with Al-Nassr winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Al-Nassr trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 48% versus Al-Nassr 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 40% | Al-Nassr 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.31 xG and Al-Nassr 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.983 / defence 0.946 | Al-Nassr attack 1.207 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.455. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Al Taawon games / 48 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Nassr 2.17. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al Taawon 30% | Al-Nassr 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Taawon 1.31 / Al-Nassr 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.983 / def 0.946 | Al-Nassr attack 1.207 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al-Nassr xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 30% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Record (5 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
30%
3.29
24%
4.16
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.98
1.66
Al-Nassr xG
3.29
30%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
17.34
12%
8.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.66 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 22W 14D 12L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 34W 8D 6L from 48 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Taawon.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 18W 2D 3L from 23 away games — 2.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Taawon are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.67 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 67%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 22W 14D 12L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 34W 8D 6L in their last 48 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.78 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2025, when Al-Nassr won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Al-Nassr 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 52%, Al-Nassr 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Al Taawon and 83% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Al Taawon's games and 65% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al Taawon's matches and 83% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Nassr share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as Al Taawon and Al-Nassr drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.31 xG and Al-Nassr 1.66 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Al-Nassr attack 1.21 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 46%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 40%, Al-Nassr 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.