Al Taawon 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq meet at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Al Taawon (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Taawon 2W, Al-Ettifaq 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Taawon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 69% versus Al-Ettifaq 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 49% | Al-Ettifaq 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.18 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.815 / defence 1.161 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.631 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.317. Data: 52 Al Taawon games / 51 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Al-Ettifaq 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 60% | Al-Ettifaq 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 40% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Taawon 1.18 / Al-Ettifaq 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.815 / def 1.161 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.631 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (3 meetings): Al Taawon 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Taawon's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.63x) against Al Taawon's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
40%
2.53
32%
3.14
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.15
0.96
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.96 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Taawon's recent record stands at 17W 18D 16L from 51 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 22L across 51 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.12 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al Taawon have managed 7W 9D 9L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 6W 7D 12L across 25 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Taawon are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 17W 18D 16L in their last 51 games (1.35 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 15D 22L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.20 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-4 on 5 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
2
Draws
3
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 1-0 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 64%, Al-Ettifaq 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 44% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 32%; Al-Ettifaq in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 32% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 44% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, as Al Taawon and Al-Ettifaq drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.18 xG and Al-Ettifaq 0.96 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.63 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 40% | Draw 32% | Al-Ettifaq 29%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 49%, Al-Ettifaq 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.35 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.