Al Shabab 6-0 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 25 as Al Shabab welcome Al Orubah to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 13 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Shabab have posted 6W 1D 3L at Al-Shabab Club Stadium — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Orubah have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Orubah have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Shabab at 1.70 PPG versus Al Orubah's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al Shabab have won 1, Al Orubah 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2024, ended 3–0 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Al Orubah in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 67% versus Al Orubah 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 67% | Al Orubah 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.26 xG and Al Orubah 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.268 / defence 1.012 | Al Orubah attack 0.690 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.323. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Al Shabab games / 24 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 68% | Draw 18% | Al Orubah 14%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Al Orubah 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 90% | Al Orubah 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 68% | Draw 18% | Al Orubah 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Shabab 2.26 / Al Orubah 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.268 / def 1.012 | Al Orubah attack 0.690 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al Orubah xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Orubah kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Orubah kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 13 March 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Orubah?
Al Shabab 6 - 0 Al Orubah.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Orubah part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 68% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Orubah?
Record (1 meetings): Al Shabab 1W | Draws 0 | Al Orubah 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Orubah in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Al Orubah (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.27x the league average against Al Orubah's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.41
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.19
0.92
Al Orubah xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
1%
68.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.92 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Al Shabab have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 12W 4D 8L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Orubah's form line: 8W 2D 14L from 24 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Orubah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Shabab have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (7W 1D 4L).
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 3W 2D 7L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.92 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 12W 4D 8L in their last 24 games (1.67 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 8W 2D 14L in their last 24 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Orubah away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.83 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al Orubah runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
0
Draws
0
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Orubah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2025, when Al Shabab 6-0 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Orubah?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 75%, Al Orubah 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Al Shabab and 67% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Orubah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Orubah?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Al Shabab's games and 42% of Al Orubah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Al Shabab's matches and 67% of Al Orubah's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Al Orubah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al Orubah 6-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.26 xG and Al Orubah 0.92 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Al Shabab beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Orubah landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.27 / defence 1.01 against Al Orubah attack 0.69 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 68% | Draw 18% | Al Orubah 14%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 67%, Al Orubah 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Orubah's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.