Al Shabab 1-2 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Al Shabab welcome Al Kholood to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 25 September 2025 at 16:25 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Shabab have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Al Kholood — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.50 PPG, Al Kholood 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 0 for Al Kholood and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2025, ended 2–0 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Shabab trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Al Kholood trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 62% and Al Kholood 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 65% | Al Kholood 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.76 xG and Al Kholood 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.003 / defence 1.099 | Al Kholood attack 0.837 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.354. Data: 37 Al Shabab games / 37 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 49% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Al Kholood 3.70. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 50% | Al Kholood 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Sep 2025, 16:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 49% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Shabab 1.76 / Al Kholood 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.003 / def 1.099 | Al Kholood attack 0.837 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Al Kholood xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Kholood kicked off at 16:25 on Thursday 25 September 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Al Shabab 1 - 2 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 49% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Kholood?
Record (2 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Kholood in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Al Kholood (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Shabab's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
49%
2.03
23%
4.26
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.00
1.25
Al Kholood xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
5%
21.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.25 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab come into this having played 37 games, going 19W 7D 11L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Al Shabab, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.16 PPG from 37 outings (13W 4D 20L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Shabab's home form reads 11W 2D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 0.74 points per game from 19 outings (4W 2D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Kholood's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.22 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 19W 7D 11L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 13W 4D 20L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.84 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al Kholood runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Kholood have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
0
Draws
3
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al Kholood have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 9 September 2026, when Al Kholood 2-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 63%, Al Kholood at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al Shabab and 58% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Al Kholood in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Al Shabab's games and 68% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al Shabab's matches and 58% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al Shabab and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al Shabab 1-2 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.76 xG and Al Kholood 1.25 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.00 / defence 1.10 against Al Kholood attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 49% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 27%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 65%, Al Kholood 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Kholood's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Al Kholood winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Kholood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.