Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 28 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 3 for Al-Fateh and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2026, ended 3–1 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Shabab 61% and Al-Fateh 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 48% | Al-Fateh 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.83 xG and Al-Fateh 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.080 / defence 1.086 | Al-Fateh attack 0.954 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Al Shabab's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al Shabab games / 45 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al-Fateh 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 44% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Al Shabab 1.83 / Al-Fateh 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.080 / def 1.086 | Al-Fateh attack 0.954 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Al-Fateh xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 22 April 2027 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 44% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Record (10 meetings): Al Shabab 3W | Draws 4 | Al-Fateh 3W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.72
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
3.31
1.48
Al-Fateh xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.07
5%
21.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.48 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 10W 16D 18L from 44 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 21L across 44 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.05 PPG, Al-Fateh on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 7W 7D 8L from 22 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.14 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 10W 16D 18L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 22 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al Shabab
4
Draws
3
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 3, Al-Fateh have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2026, when Al-Fateh 1-3 Al Shabab.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 68%, Al-Fateh 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al Shabab) and 41% (Al-Fateh).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al Shabab's games and 59% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Al Shabab's recent games and 41% of Al-Fateh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.