Al Shabab 2-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al Shabab welcome Al-Fateh to Al-Shabab Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Al-Shabab Club Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al Shabab register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al Shabab, 2 for Al-Fateh and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 May 2024, ended 3–2 with Al Shabab winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 46% versus Al-Fateh 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 46% | Al-Fateh 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.70 xG and Al-Fateh 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.046 / defence 0.978 | Al-Fateh attack 0.719 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.266. Data: 46 Al Shabab games / 46 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fateh 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Shabab at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al Shabab 60% | Al-Fateh 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 56% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Al Shabab 1.70 / Al-Fateh 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.046 / def 0.978 | Al-Fateh attack 0.719 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Al-Fateh xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 December 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Al Shabab 2 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 56% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al Shabab 2W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.05x the league average against Al-Fateh's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
56%
1.77
24%
4.18
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.59
0.89
Al-Fateh xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
23%
4.31
4%
28.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.89 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Shabab's recent record stands at 19W 9D 18L from 46 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 22L across 46 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Shabab on 1.43 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al Shabab have managed 11W 2D 9L from 22 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fateh's away record stands at 6W 4D 12L across 22 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Shabab are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.43 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 74%.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 19W 9D 18L in their last 46 games (1.43 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 11D 22L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Al Shabab
4
Draws
4
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 2, Al-Fateh have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2026, when Al Shabab 1-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al Shabab at 59%, Al-Fateh at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Shabab and 73% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Al Shabab's games and 77% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Shabab vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Shabab's matches and 73% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Al Shabab and Al-Fateh drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.70 xG and Al-Fateh 0.89 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Al-Fateh attack 0.72 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 56% | Draw 24% | Al-Fateh 20%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 46%, Al-Fateh 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.43 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.