Al Shabab 3-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Ahli Jeddah.

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Match Analysis

Al Shabab host Al-Ahli Jeddah at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 11 May 2025 at 18:05 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Shabab have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Shabab 1.90 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Shabab, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Jan 2025, ended Al Shabab 2–3 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Ahli Jeddah win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 55% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.58 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.228 / defence 0.786 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.141 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.409. Al Shabab have a tight defence (rating 0.786), which is pulling Al-Ahli Jeddah's projected output down. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 64 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 64.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 45% | Draw 25% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.23 | Draw 4.05 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.28. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50% (last 10 away games).

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