Damac 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Al-Raed travel to Dhamak Club Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025, 17:10 UTC.
Form Guide
Damac — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Damac at Dhamak Club Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 0.70 PPG, Al-Raed 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Damac register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Raed in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Damac, 2 for Al-Raed and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Damac winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Damac in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 56% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 52% | Al-Raed 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.71 xG and Al-Raed 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.849 / defence 1.087 | Al-Raed attack 1.191 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.407. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Damac games / 64 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 37% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 41%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Al-Raed 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Raed offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.54 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Damac 60% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 17:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 37% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Damac 1.71 / Al-Raed 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.849 / def 1.087 | Al-Raed attack 1.191 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Al-Raed xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Raed kick off?
Damac vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:10 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Damac 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Damac vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Raed part of?
Damac vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 37% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Damac and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
Record (7 meetings): Damac 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 2W.
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Damac's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Raed's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
37%
2.72
22%
4.52
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Damac xG
Total xG
3.54
1.82
Al-Raed xG
2.72
37%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.81
7%
13.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Damac and 1.82 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Damac have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 18W 18D 28L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Al-Raed's form line: 15W 13D 36L from 64 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.34 PPG from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 8W 7D 17L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Damac are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.25 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Current Season
Al-Raed
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 18W 18D 28L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 15W 13D 36L in their last 64 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Raed away?
Damac's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.34 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Damac have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2023, when Al-Raed won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Damac's record when hosting Al-Raed specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Damac
1
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Raed?
From 8 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al-Raed have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Damac 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Raed?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 56%, Al-Raed 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Damac) and 59% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Raed in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Damac's games and 59% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Damac's matches and 59% of Al-Raed's.
Do Damac and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.71 xG and Al-Raed 1.82 xG, a combined 3.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Al-Raed attack 1.19 / defence 1.30, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 37% | Draw 22% | Al-Raed 41%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 52%, Al-Raed 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.12 PPG, Al-Raed 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.