Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Riyadh and Al-Raed meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 20 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Riyadh's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Riyadh have posted 4W 3D 3L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al-Raed (all games): 1W 0D 9L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Al Riyadh's 1.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Riyadh, 1 for Al-Raed and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Al Riyadh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Riyadh half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Riyadh 56% versus Al-Raed 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Riyadh 54% | Al-Raed 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al-Raed 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Riyadh attack 0.823 / defence 0.775 | Al-Raed attack 0.847 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.347. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al Riyadh games / 54 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Riyadh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 23%. Fair-value odds: Al Riyadh 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Raed 4.35. Al Riyadh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Riyadh at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Riyadh 40% | Al-Raed 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Riyadh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Riyadh 1.48 / Al-Raed 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al Riyadh attack 0.823 / def 0.775 | Al-Raed attack 0.847 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al-Raed xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 20 February 2025 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed?
Al Riyadh 1 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Riyadh a 51% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Riyadh and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al Riyadh 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Raed in?
Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Riyadh's attack at 0.82x the league average against Al-Raed's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.85x) against Al Riyadh's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.78
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Riyadh xG
Total xG
2.36
0.88
Al-Raed xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
19.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Riyadh and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Riyadh and 0.88 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Al Riyadh have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 16W 16D 22L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 13W 12D 29L from 54 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al Riyadh against 0.94 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Riyadh have posted 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (8W 9D 9L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 6W 7D 13L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Riyadh are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Riyadh
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Riyadh and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Riyadh have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 13W 12D 29L in their last 54 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Riyadh at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Riyadh's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Riyadh at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Raed won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Riyadh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Riyadh
1
Draws
2
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Riyadh and Al-Raed?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Riyadh have won 1, Al-Raed have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Riyadh and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2025, when Al Riyadh 1-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Riyadh and Al-Raed?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Riyadh 46%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al Riyadh) and 54% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Al Riyadh have failed to score in 35% of games; Al-Raed in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Riyadh home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Riyadh play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al Riyadh's recent matches and 58% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Riyadh vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al Riyadh's recent games and 54% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Riyadh and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Riyadh have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Riyadh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Riyadh 1-3 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Riyadh 1.48 xG and Al-Raed 0.88 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Riyadh attack 0.82 / defence 0.78 against Al-Raed attack 0.85 / defence 1.19, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Riyadh 51% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 23%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Al-Raed win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Riyadh 54%, Al-Raed 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Riyadh's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Riyadh 1.19 PPG, Al-Raed 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.